Will the Arctic really melt?

The thought of the Arctic Ice Cap melting is pretty scary. It's likely Europe would be plunged into an ice age as the Great Ocean Conveyor Belt gets shut down or re-routed.

However I noticed that the minimum, while getting lower, always turns around by the equinox. And when I sketch in a trend line for the minimums, it intersects the ice extent at right around 3.5 million square kilometers of ice. Analyzing the data this way suggests the Arctic Ocean won't become entirely ice free.

What actually determines the minimum? If it's the amount of ice that builds over the winter, and that amount continues to build up as it has in the past, then it sure looks like we're going to have ice in the Arctic.

Xena Is Backpacking

I just delivered my wife to the train station. Later today she'll be in Yosemite, and tomorrow she'll start her three week backpacking trip on the John Muir Trail, traveling north to south, arriving at the top of Mount Whitney around September 29th.

This is zone 0 traveling through zone 5, for those of you who are learning about permaculture.

I am keenly aware at the moment of how much effort it takes to plan and execute the plan, while doing all the things you'd normally be doing, especially when your "normal life" is the sort that includes adding a bunch of stuff to your schedule already.

She worked more than full time, helped Caitlan find housing, helped Nicholas get enrolled in High School, and she bought equipment and supplies and cooked 3 weeks worth of dinners (with extra, for us to sample or share for dinner that evening) and she dehydrated all that food, and she planned out her days and her transportation.

I did help somewhat, with doing a little bit of her laundry and dishes and shopping. As I look around this morning, I can see the trail of chaos left in the wake of final preparation: food trays stacked about, waiting to be cleaned. Packaging and clothes and gear that didn't make the space and weight cut are piled into heaps. This will be a little bit more that I contribute to her hoped for success on this journey: cleaning up here at home, making sure this is all nice to come back to.

From now on when I see someone receive an achievement award of some sort, I will certainly be imagining the part of the story that often isn't told, of slotting the effort into the schedule of an already full life.

Yuri's Night NASA Ames 2008 (#1)

I have a few fun pics about Yuri's Night. And after today's earlier, heavy post, some levity is in order. Here's the first of I hope many short posts: Caitlan is discovering the moon. The moon is certainly Zone 5.

We also looked at biofilms (and schooled the scientist a little bit about Utah's dry cyanobacteria!) and generally took in the scene. I really enjoyed spending time with Caity.

Zone 5: Utah's Escalante

Zone 5 is where a permaculturist doesn't make any changes to nature, but rather is inspired by Her ways. The slot canyons of southern Utah are a great spot to get inspired, and specifically for me, I recalled much of the water vortex work done by Viktor Schauberger.

Carrying 40 to 50 pound packs, with water shoes, through snow-melt streams filled with submerged rocks and holes we might step into up past our waists was as much adventure as I could handle. Note the backpacking shoes getting a free ride!


Our last day, we did a quick hike through a dry canyon. I took a little time here. I tried to slow down enough that I could "hear" the rock, like I do when I stand on a granite dome in the Sierras. I really couldn't do it. I did sense, though, echoes of the water that flows here.

This is a short post; I'm still working on re-integrating with the hectic lifestyle we live here in zones 1 through 3. I have so much to write about, and hopefully you can wait a bit!