Red Shoulder Hawk

Red Shoulder Hawk

Tuesday, October 05, 2010

Will the Arctic really melt?

The thought of the Arctic Ice Cap melting is pretty scary. It's likely Europe would be plunged into an ice age as the Great Ocean Conveyor Belt gets shut down or re-routed.

However I noticed that the minimum, while getting lower, always turns around by the equinox. And when I sketch in a trend line for the minimums, it intersects the ice extent at right around 3.5 million square kilometers of ice. Analyzing the data this way suggests the Arctic Ocean won't become entirely ice free.

What actually determines the minimum? If it's the amount of ice that builds over the winter, and that amount continues to build up as it has in the past, then it sure looks like we're going to have ice in the Arctic.

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